The Trillion Dollar Question : Who will be hoisting the Tricolour this I-Day from the Red Fort?

The mother of all battles- The 15th General Elections in India to determine the power to be for next five year are now less than 10 days away and in 40 days time we will be knowing who will be having the above mentioned honour.

Its early April and the picture is not very clear this time round.

Although a lot of names have popped up for the Prime Ministership ,in fact every leader whose party can win a mere 10 Lok Sabha seats has forwarded his/her name,I see only three real contenders ,with 95% chances that eventually one among them will be the PM.

Situation 1 :The UPA bags 230+ seats [counting SP,RJD & LJP as apart of UPA]

PM:Manmohan Singh
In this scenario, it will not be difficult for UPA to add more people to coalition and muster the required 272 figure to form the government without any support from Left.Then,the official candidate of UPA- Manmohan Singh will become the PM.


Situation 2: UPA gets ~200 seats but can cross 250 with support from Left
PM:Pranab Mukherjee
This situation may ultimately honour the man who has been long standing in the queue and more importantly has been a desrerving candidate at the same time - Pranab Mukherjee.

Now, Left will never support BJP/NDA.

Also, as far as alliance with Congress is concerned,they have already made it clear that they will not be a part of Congress-led govt. but they are open to the idea of a govt. with outside support from Congress.

But as Left has always done, I expect that this time also, they will eventually back a Congress candidate/be a part of Congress-led govt.
This is where the real dilemma for Left starts.After the honeymoon being over over N-deal ,they cannot support the candidature of Manmohan Singh.To Left, the image is still of a humble Manmohan turning hostile and going ahead with the execution of N-deal.

Now, Left leaders are enjoying a very good rapport with Mukherjee over the years and this proposal is already doing rounds in WB. Who knows then, Pranab might ultimately get what Madam denied to the most deserving one in Congress back in 2004.

3)Situation 3:NDA gets 200+ seats

This situation will yield the most enterprising deal.I guess that in this situation ,we will have

PM:Lal Krishna Advani

Vice PM:Behen Mayawati

AIADMK,TRS will be among the parties to join NDA.

Right now, NDA doesn't seem to be in that position according to various opinion polls and analysis.But the key is that these analysis can never be valid in Indian Scenario.

Even if Congress saved Delhi and captured Rajasthan towards the end of last year,It lost 12 states on a trot prior to that.So taking any relief from last assembly polls in 2008 will be anything but foolish.

And ,yes, I agree with Amar Singh - there is clearly some understanding between BJP and BSP.

Now, some people think Mayawati will never settle for anything less than PM.But she is shrewd and its her calculated playings . Mayawati realizes that its time to make noises so that she can atleast be Vice PM .If she succeeds in that ,her chances of becoming the next PM rises exponentially.

But its really difficult for NDA to get 200 seats on its own.Same for BJP,it looks like that it will not cross 150 seats.All eyes should now be glued to UP where Varun issue has started polarisation among Hindu.How much BJP is able to make out of it will matter a lot.If even it translates to 20+ seats in UP,BJP can cross 150 seats .


In men whom men condemn as ill
I find so much of goodness still,
In men whom men pronounce divine
I find so much of sin and blot,
I do not dare to draw a line
Between the two, where God has not.